The start of April 2020 has been hard for the United States.
Forecasting Cumulative Case Totals
It is really cool to watch the things start to flatten. But is that flattening from New York City? Unlikely. As of 5 April 2020, we pushed the 500,000 milestone out to 6-7 of April from what was predicted to be 1 April 2020 based on the early spread. Most likely it’s being contained and squashed in small communities via quarantines successfully and that is preventing the further spread at this time. In 1918, this drive to reopen cities and lift restrictions resulted in second outbreaks in many cities.
Let coronavirus be eradicated from your small town.
Hot Spots
Update 5 April 2020:
I’m going to start breaking down the specifics for each state to develop forecasting. It sounds like coronavirus is going to be with us for a long time, so we might as well figure out a way to predict these ebbs and flows that accounts for human behavior as well. Part of each post will be a regular update showing how the forecast is changing. By seeing that our actions have impact maybe I can provide a bit of positive feedback for people that need encouragement.
If coronavirus is with us, that means it has found its reservoir population. This is bad. This means it hangs out in those people and does nothing except infect others until their body maybe figures out something is going on. West Nile Virus and Dengue Fever hang out in mosquitoes this way, kind of. It’s more complicated than that. This sounds like another post.
Social Distancing Score
I don’t agree with all of their measures and I will explain why I think they are only accurate in certain parts of the country in another post. That said, I do think that it is a useful tool for awareness and contemplation on the score.
As of 5 April 2020 the United States is still struggling with the concept of social distancing and these example struggles are leading to serious consequences. Do I think the above scoring system makes sense? No. But it’s better than nothing and I will address each state individually over the coming weeks while updating the rest of these.
TL;DR
- We’re watching the curve flatten nationally, but I hypothesize that this is actually the accumulated effect of rural areas and low exposure areas quarantining and eradicating COVID-19, not New York City.
- In 1918, this drive to reopen cities and lift restrictions resulted in second outbreaks in many cities. Let coronavirus be eradicated from your home town before we reopen everything.
- Social distancing is hard to measure and important to be aware of. I will discuss this more.
- New York City is a visible hot spot and may have an undiagnosed reservoir population that is asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. We need accurate testing.
Thank you to anyone reading this. These are shouts into a void without you.
