Recovery: If 1 million Americans get coronavirus, what will the recovery look like?

Success With Flattening the Curve

I posted this on twitter last night after the briefing.

Remember how we were projected to have 2.5 Million cases? We have reduced the projected number of infected Americans by 1.5 Million to only 1 Million. 1 Million is not great, but that’s a big change. That is called flattening the curve and everyone should be thinking that is really amazing (I know I am). They did not mention the number in the briefing (frustratingly). But forecasting has gotten a bad rep in the past.

For those who are math nerds – that’s a linear fit to 1,000,000 (switch from exponential), which some dude in the early 20th century proposed was when the growth in the number of reported influenza cases was hitting it’s predictable rounded peak forecasted the maximum cumulative cases (the limit). I’ve been trying to go through my notes to remember more about how this all works because I don’t remember the name of who came up with all of this and I’m trying to find the paper. I will update this and replace this rambling text when I do.

Recovery in the US

Recovery is not a guarantee that you will not get SARS-CoV-2 again. There are recorded cases of reinfection internationally. We do not have enough data to know if this is reactivation of latent virus or if this is true reinfection. That said, we are finally looking for asymptomatic, both recovered and not, individuals.

A vaccine would be able to address this by using adjuvants designed to induce helper T cell immunity in addition to antibody based immunity. Vaccines take time. Realistically a good vaccine will be on the market in March 2021 at the absolute earliest. Anything before that I will be floored if it has sufficient efficacy to help.

In New York City, 40-50% of patients experiencing severe acute respiratory distress will be placed on a ventilator. If recovery required a ventilator, the testimonies from survivors do not suggest a population able to return to the workforce tomorrow. Shortness of breath, weakness, and other long term effects of hypoxia threaten the be permanent disabilities in this portion of the population.

But what if you do have immunity? You’ll be able to test that. What if you’re one of the lucky ones? I guess that’s up to you.

We’re in this together.

source:https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

At each of these state clusters there is at least one urban center that has the dominant reservoir population. Once movement between urban centers (New York -> Chicago -> Houston -> Miami -> Atlanta -> Boston -> Dallas -> L.A. -> San Francisco -> Chicago -> Orlando -> Pittsburgh -> (etc. etc. etc.)) stops then there will no longer be additions of infected individuals into the populations. This is why non-essential planes need to be grounded.

I live in Montana. I am so blessed. I want to make it clear that we still need to behave. It only takes 1 person to infect 10.

My family and people I love live in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, California, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Arizona and Maine. I’m terrified for everyone.

We’re going to gradually come to a new normal. Ask me questions and I’ll eventually address them in updates on these original posts.

As a change of pace, I’m going to stop writing about the coronavirus for a while unless there’s something people specifically think of graphs or other things that would be useful questions to be answered in something new instead of an update. I still have a backlog of a couple posts that will still get done though.

I will be starting to write short stories and weird little memoir style posts so people can enjoy my writing separate from the reviews.

Thank you for reading. Without you this is a shout into the void.

February 2020: "Wanting Peace: Book 2 of the Reclaiming Life Series" by Alaine Greyson

Summary:

“Wanting Peace” welcomes readers back to Bracken Point with a new romance novel! This sequel in the “Reclaiming Life” series by Alaine Greyson returns us to this small community set in a small-ish town near the Chesapeake Bay. Cassie Roberts and her sister Bex must first deal with the loss of their mother to cancer. Cassie has her own inner demons she must face, but the problems of those around her provide ample distraction. Even better, she’s an accomplished professional finishing the requirements necessary for independent practice in the local rehabilitation clinic, so who better qualified to be giving said life advice?

But when her mother’s dying wish was for Cassie and her sister to reconnect with their estranged father, what is someone in her position to do? Can they confront and heal from that abandonment? Bex begins acting out as she is unable to regulate her own emotions. All this while Cassie and Michael realize that there’s something more than friendship between them. But can Cassie keep herself from meddling and prying into everyone’s secrets?

Overlapping with the end of “Chasing Peace,” this book brings whole new light to the unique characters of Bracken Point.

Overall Response:

First off – this is the sequel to the book that inspired me to start writing reviews. Bracken Point is a fictional place that feels like home to me because it’s along the Chesapeake Bay. The premise of these books captured my attention with book one. These books are so much more than romance novels. I again want to commend the author for the incredible job she does writing these books in a compassionate and understanding way that does not judge characters. She chooses instead to focus on the complexities of mental health, recovery, and the role of the family in recovery. These books push for healthy relationships through communication, boundaries, and conflict resolution. Sometimes it’s cheesy, sometimes it’s steamy – “Wanting Peace” is everything I hoped for.

Book 2 is more graphic than the first book in the best possible ways. Greyson does not dance around the details of drug use, providing more imagery for the reader. As an example, “A waft of ammonia, smoke, and cat urine filled the air. Michael pinched his nose, wondering why he had never noticed the putrescent smell before tonight.” That snippet is one of many contained within the book that demonstrates an understanding critical for reaching an audience that needs the hope offered in this book. I recently purchased both books 1 and 2 of the series for a couple I love to read and review because they’re involved as leaders in the addiction recovery community. 

I have one discussion point that remains from the previous reviewWhat are the roles of a psychiatrist versus a therapist (aka psychologist) in drug rehabilitation, and what is the difference in their level of education? Can someone be both? (discussion relevant to the US only)

First off, I am not a mental health professional, but I do work in the health professions. This doesn’t make me an expert on something that isn’t my field. Psychiatrists and psychologists work together. People can be both. I had not done enough research in that first book review. I recommend checking out RehabCenter.net’s answer. Having never been in a rehab center and spending more time researching this question, I have learned that there are psychiatrists that specialize in dual-diagnosis. Additionally, I learned about the holistic treatment of addiction in specialized centers like the one discussed in Bracken Point. These psychiatrists call themselves “addictionologists,” according to Clearview Treatment Programs. And they are trained as therapists. Thank you to the very tolerant patient care coordinator that chatted with me. I appreciate your help explaining all of this, knowing I was reviewing a book and not seeking treatment.

LGBTQA+:

There is a recurring character in this book that is a member of the LGBTQA community. There is a scene I personally appreciated where the author presents a situation regarding disclosure and invasion of privacy. It was well done.

Grammar +:

This book is very close to meeting the 1/10,000 error standard. They did not interrupt the reading experience at all and mostly consisted of missing words.

Twilight Zone Moment:

This is a different kind of twilight zone. This is a twilight zone RESOLUTION. Remember how I got a little scared because I had no idea who lit the candles in book one? It all adds up now. I’m not freaked out any more.

About The Author And The Series:

Alaine Greyson is the author of many short stories, the Reclaiming Life series (Buy Chasing Peace here, Wanting Peace here, Preorder Finding Peace here), and will be soon releasing the Trapped Soul Series – preorder the first book here. Her publisher is Creative James Media.

Thank you to everyone that reads these. Without you I’m shouting into a void. I hope they help the indie writing community in some way.